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Arguments
- Evaluation Matrix |
This is a matrix for
systematic screening and discussion of scientific arguments on how trends in
various sectors of society will affect China's food security. Contrary to approaches that
focus on biogeophysical conditions of food production - such as arable land area,
water resources, and climate conditions - this matrix also points to demographic,
political, economic, and administrative factors. |
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Trends |
Impact |
Data
quality |
Prediction
error |
Intervention
possibilities |
Intervention
costs |
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Population |
Massive growth
unavoidable |
Drives
food demand |
Good |
Very large |
Possible,
but limited |
Direct low,
indirect high |
|
Change in diet |
Data show rapid
change in diet |
Drives feed
crop demand |
Medium |
Large |
Difficult or
impossible |
Not very
cost-effective |
|
Urbanization |
Rapid
urbanization
is likely |
Commercial
agriculture
& food industry |
Very
poor |
Large, but
overall trend
is clear |
Very
difficult |
High |
|
Arable land/soils |
Scarcity,
highly unreliable
land-use data |
Decline,
degradation,
soil loss |
Poor |
Large |
Possible
but difficult |
Very high |
|
Water resources |
Growing demand,
regionally very scarce |
Deficit, flooding,
pollution |
Mixed |
Large |
Possible |
Very high |
|
Agricultural
policy
(grain import, land ownership, market access, food prices) |
Liberalization of
agriculture since 1978 |
Increases
efficiency |
Uncertain |
Very large |
Possible |
Low |
|
Science
and technology
(in agriculture and in the food industry) |
Improved science
and technology in
agriculture |
Increases
productivity |
Adequate |
Large |
Possible |
Medium |
Click on links for more detailed arguments. |
Color
coding |
|
Behavioral factors |
|
Policy / legislation |
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Physical resources |
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Science / technology |
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Explanation |
This matrix is an attempt to answer six
important questions for each of the factors that determine China's food security:
- What are the major trends in a particular
sector? For instance, we discuss China's main demographic trends because population growth
is a core factor of future food demand.
- What is the impact of those trends on China's
food security? For example, we know that diet preferences in China have changed
significantly in recent years, with people eating considerably more meat, vegetables, and
fruit. How will these trends affect overall food demand, and can they threaten China's
food security?
- How reliable are the empirical data needed to
assess the impact of a particular trend? For instance, population statistics for China are
known to be relatively reliable as confirmed by independent tests of the census, whereas
land-use statistics are known to be unreliable due to underreporting.
- How large is the error that can be expected
from projecting the current trends of a particular factor for the next 50
years? For example, in the case of China, population projections could have a very large
absolute error margin (in the range of 200 million people) due to the huge initial
population size. On the other hand, the error range for projections of meat consumption
should only be medium (or even small), because per capita meat consumption can only vary
within the range of the human physiology: no one can eat 30 kg of meat per day.
- Can policy measures affect a given factor
easily or not? For instance, can China's planners and politicians do something to increase
the area of arable land? They probably can, because from statistical data and satellite
images indicate that there are still a few land reserves in remote areas (such as
in the Northeast). However, it will be very difficult to build the necessary
infrastructure, resettle farmers, market the product, etc. Is it possible to increase feed
grain imports? It may be a hard fight within the political establishment to make the
decision, but once made, it is certainly possible for China to import substantial amounts
of (feed) grain.
- What are the costs of policy interventions?
Here the discussion should include not only economic, but also social and
political costs. A drastic example explains the difference. A program to slow population
growth that uses pressure for sterilization is certainly very cost-efficient in economic
terms, but it can be extremely costly from a social and political point of view.
On the other hand, legislation (including adequate enforcement) against urban sprawl does
not cost much and could be quite effective at preventing loss of arable land.
This matrix was developed as a tool for decision
makers who need to consider and evaluate the many dimensions of China's food
problem, which are linked to various interest groups both inside and outside of China
(farmers, consumers, industry, scientists, administrators, and politicians).
The matrix tries to avoid the "tunnel-visioned" approach of recent
publications on China's food security, which have focused almost exclusively on
just two issues: the scarcity of agricultural resources (arable land and water) and
environmental degradation. Much less thought has been given to demand-side
factors of the food equation or to the reliability problems of Chinese statistics. There
is also a remarkable lack of imagination in the literature on China's food prospects when
it comes to technological innovation or improvement in agricultural management (which
could be a significant source for production increases).
The matrix's main intention is to promote a more adequate,
multidisciplinary approach to China's food problems. I hope the reader will use this
matrix as a stimulus to explore the associated data and extensive references. |
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
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