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Arguments - Data Quality |
| Population Growth |
During the first three
decades after the foundation of the People's Republic, few detailed population data were
published in China. Those statistics that were available were of questionable validity,
because of massive political interference with the statistical system during that period.
However, the situation has changed fundamentally since the late 1970s. Today, detailed
high-quality demographic statistics are available, not only within the country, but also
to foreign experts. The 1982 and 1990 censuses in particular have significantly improved
the situation.
To measure short-term changes in demographic trends between census years and to obtain
more detailed demographic information, China has conducted several sample surveys. Recent
household and fertility surveys have shown extremely low levels of fertility, which might
be looked at with some skepticism. |
| Description
of the Problem |
| Reliable demographic
statistics are essential for estimating China's future population growth, which is a major
driving factor of food demand. |
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What is
the history of (population) statistics in modern China? |
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Which data
sources are reliable? |
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| Discussion |
| The history of (population) statistics in modern China |
Tables
& Charts |
For more than 30 years
- between 1949 and the early 1980s - statistical data in China were an instrument of
political propaganda and manipulation. Detailed demographic and economic statistics were
seldom published, and data that were available were of questionable validity. This lack of
reliable statistical information not only led to embarrassing misinterpretations of
China's development in the West, but it also made it difficult for China's leaders to get
an unbiased view of what was going on in their country. For more than 10 years after the
Cultural Revolution - between 1966 and the mid-1970s - there was almost no
systematic collection and publication of statistical information at the national level.
Even basic demographic and economic statistics were not available.
The situation gradually began to improve in the late 1970s, and detailed results were
published for the 1982 census. Since then, China has not only made most of its statistics
available to the outside world, but it has also worked hard to improve the validity of its
demographic data. (For a more detailed analysis of China's statistical system since 1949,
see the in-depth analysis). |
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| Reliable demographic information from the 1982 and 1990 censuses |
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The People's Republic
of China has conducted four population censuses: in 1953, 1964, 1982, and 1990. The 1953
census included only a few questions and was mainly targeted at providing a basis for
monitoring the First Five-Year Plan. The 1964 census - conducted a few years after the
economic and social disaster of the "Great Leap Forward" - was a complete
failure. It was badly organized and only a part of the collected data was processed and
tabulated. In the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution, most of the questionnaires were lost
or destroyed. Demographic data before the late 1970s - as all statistical information -
are of questionable validity due to massive interference from the political system.
However, there is widespread consensus among demographers that China's population data
from the 1982 and 1990 censuses are quite accurate. Several scholarly papers have been
published by both Western and Chinese demographers confirmed the high quality of the data.
It has been argued that the enumeration of the total population in China in 1990 was
probably more accurate than that of recent censuses in the USA (due to high levels of
illegal immigration in the latter). With the 1982 and 1990 censuses, demographers have
been able to reconstruct China's demographic history for the past several decades. |
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| Questionable results from recent fertility surveys |
With the
implementation of its rigorous family planning program, China had a vital interest in
producing detailed and reliable population statistics. In addition to the 1982 and 1990
national population censuses, China has conducted several fertility surveys. While these
sample surveys were administered with high methodological sophistication, including
detailed analysis of sampling errors (see Hao and Ling, 1997), the results have not
convinced all demographers. To the surprise of many foreign experts, these surveys
recently reported extremely low levels of fertility, not only for the cities, where the
total fertility rate (TFR) was estimated to be below 1.2 children per woman, but also for
rural areas, where an average TFR of 2 children per woman was reported. There is concern
that due to underreporting of births, recent fertility estimates might be too low (Merli,
1998; see also Table 1).
There is, for instance, the well-known and heavily debated fact of "missing
girls" in China. The sex ratio at birth and during young age groups is highly
unbalanced - especially in certain rural provinces. There are only three possibilities
that can explain this: (1) a high frequency of selective abortion of females; (2)
infanticide or neglect of female babies; and (3) underreporting of female births and
children. All three processes can be identified in China, each explaining about one-third
of the "missing girls" (Banister, 1996). Due to pressure from China's one-child
policy, farmers, especially those in remote areas, have been using these measures to make
sure that they have at least one son.
The problem of "missing girls" due to underreporting indicates that fertility in
China might be higher than reported. This question is certainly discussed among the
demographic experts and great efforts are being made to come up with accurate estimates. |
Table 1 |
| Related Arguments |
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Population: Trends
Impact Data Quality Prediction Error Intervention Possibilities Intervention Costs
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
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