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2nd Revision |
| Data - Population | ||||||||
| The Impact of Fertility Assumptions on Total Population Projections in China | ||||||||
| This table compares the 1994 and 1998 revisions of the Low Variant UN Population Projections | ||||||||
Fertility Estimate / Projection |
Population Estimate / Projection |
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Period |
1994 |
1998 |
Difference |
Year |
1994 |
1998 |
Difference |
|
1950 |
554,760 |
554,760 |
0 |
|||||
1950-55 |
6.11 |
6.22 |
0.11 |
1955 |
609,005 |
609,005 |
0 |
|
1955-60 |
5.48 |
5.59 |
0.11 |
1960 |
657,492 |
657,492 |
0 |
|
1960-65 |
5.61 |
5.72 |
0.11 |
1965 |
729,191 |
729,191 |
0 |
|
1965-70 |
5.94 |
6.06 |
0.12 |
1970 |
830,675 |
830,675 |
0 |
|
1970-75 |
4.76 |
4.86 |
0.10 |
1975 |
927,808 |
927,808 |
0 |
|
1975-80 |
3.26 |
3.32 |
0.06 |
1980 |
998,877 |
998,877 |
0 |
|
1980-85 |
2.50 |
2.55 |
0.05 |
1985 |
1,070,175 |
1,070,175 |
0 |
|
1985-90 |
2.41 |
2.46 |
0.05 |
1990 |
1,155,305 |
1,155,305 |
0 |
|
1990-95 |
1.85 |
1.92 |
0.07 |
1995 |
1,216,089 |
1,220,516 |
4,427 |
|
1995-00 |
1.70 |
1.77 |
0.07 |
2000 |
1,265,889 |
1,276,213 |
10,324 |
|
2000-05 |
1.60 |
1.65 |
0.05 |
2005 |
1,301,231 |
1,315,885 |
14,654 |
|
2005-10 |
1.50 |
1.55 |
0.05 |
2010 |
1,326,814 |
1,345,998 |
19,184 |
|
2010-15 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2015 |
1,348,339 |
1,370,923 |
22,584 |
|
2015-20 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2020 |
1,361,692 |
1,388,265 |
26,573 |
|
2020-25 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2025 |
1,363,000 |
1,394,280 |
31,280 |
|
2025-30 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2030 |
1,350,678 |
1,386,891 |
36,213 |
|
2030-35 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2035 |
1,325,808 |
1,367,471 |
41,663 |
|
2035-40 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2040 |
1,292,860 |
1,338,371 |
45,511 |
|
2040-45 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2045 |
1,250,899 |
1,298,948 |
48,049 |
|
2045-50 |
1.50 |
1.5 |
0.00 |
2050 |
1,199,919 |
1,250,100 |
50,181 |
|
| Source: United Nations (1995): World Population Prospects. The 1994 Revision. New York; United Nations (1999): World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. New York (both from data on diskettes) | ||||||||
| These low variant population projections for China from the United Nations
Population Division can be used to demonstrate that even very small variations in
fertility assumptions have a huge impact on total population projections when the initial
population is very large. Both the 1994 and the 1998 revision of the UN Population Projections use for 1990 an initial population of 1.155 billion. With the fertility assumptions from the 1994 revision the Chinese population was projected to increase to a little less than 1.2 billion people; with the only slightly modified fertility assumptions from the 1998 revision, the population was projected to increase to more than 1.25 billion. Please note that the projected difference of 50.2 million people is only due to the minimal difference in fertility assumptions of 0.07 children per woman (between 1990 and 2000) and 0.05 children per woman between 2000 and 2010. Of course, no one is able to predict China's future Total Fertility Rate with a two-digit accuracy. In other words, we have to expect that China's total population in 2050 can be only predicted with an error range of at least 50 to 100 million people. |
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| Related Tables & Charts | ||||||||
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| Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999) - Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) | ||||||||
