|
|
| Data - Urbanization |
| Projections
of China's urban population: Various methods |
| |
Method
1
"Extrapolation" |
Method 2
"Demographic model" |
Method 3
"Economic model" |
| |
United Nations |
Zeng and Vaupel /3 |
Shen and Spence /4 |
Year |
UN
94 /1 |
UN
96 /2 |
Scen.
1 |
Scen.
2 |
Scen.
3 |
Scen.
A |
Scen.
B |
Scen.
C |
1987/88 |
 |
|
394 |
394 |
394 |
334 |
334 |
334 |
1990 |
303 |
303 |
|
|
|
367 |
367 |
367 |
1995 |
369 |
369 |
|
|
|
450 |
448 |
448 |
2000 |
443 |
438 |
458 |
645 |
633 |
531 |
525 |
525 |
2005 |
519 |
508 |
|
|
|
|
|
603 |
2010 |
597 |
578 |
|
|
|
703 |
688 |
688 |
2015 |
676 |
647 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
756 |
712 |
502 |
898 |
853 |
876 |
851 |
842 |
2025 |
832 |
773 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2030 |
|
828 |
|
|
|
1,016 |
986 |
950 |
2040 |
|
|
|
|
|
1,123 |
1,081 |
1,011 |
2050 |
|
|
470 |
1,246 |
1,145 |
|
|
|
2060 |
|
|
|
|
|
1,234 |
1,188 |
1,007 |
/1: United
Nations, 1995 (electronic data base) /2: United Nations (1997):
/3: Zeng Yi / Vaupel, 1989, 434 /4: Shen / Spence, 1996, p.1435, 1438 |
Method 1: "Simple
Extrapolation": Application of urban-rural proportion to projected total
population.
Method 2: "Demographic Model": Multi-regional (multi-state) demographic
projection.
Method 3: "Economic Model": Projection based on Demo-Economic Model. |
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| Related
Tables & Charts |
|
 
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
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