Presentations

Presentation: Selected Tables and Charts
Population

1	Population History	Food security does not correlate with population density
2	Population Pyramid	Baby boom; demographic indicator of famine during the "Great Leap Forward"
3	Population Crisis	Famine-related population crisis
4	Aging: Animation	Population momentum
5	Aging: Age Groups	Unique situation: very large working-age population

Diet

6	Food Calorie Supply	Food supply has significantly improved; people eat a more diverse diet

Urbanization

7	Urban / Rural Population	Statistics are of little value
8	Projections	Large uncertainty in future trends
9	Agricultural / Non-agricultural	Household registration system is used to control (rural-urban) mobility
10	Data manipulation	Low validity of urban-rural statistics: You can proof whatever you want.

Arable Land

11	Various older estimates	Cultivated land area was under-estimated by about 40%.
12	New estimate	Land-use survey of the Chinese State Land Administration
13	What is causing land losses?	Agricultural restructuring is the major factor of land-use change
14	Soil degradation (maps)	Soil degradation is still only moderate or low in cultivated areas

Water

15	Precipitation (animation)	A strong gradient in precipitation from the South-east to the North-west
16	LGP - Animation	The Length of Growing Period animation shows high climate variation and stability in various regions of China
16	Flooding (remote sensing)	Flooding is one of the greatest risks for food security; siltation of Yellow river
17	Water availability	Highly uneven distribution between the North and South; 34% of the population lives in water constraint areas

Policy (economic / agricultural)

18	Pre- and post-1978 policy	Before 1978: centrally planned command-and-control agriculture on collective land. After 1978: family farming with increasing market elements

Science & Technology

19	Machinery; Fertilizers; Yields	Mechanization and modernization of China's agriculture
20	Investment in research	State investment into agricultural research


Conclusion:

21	Demand Various projections	Depending on trends in diet change China will need between 500 to 600 million tons of grain in 2025.
22	Supply Land with cultivation potential Potential grain production	China has some 160 million hectares of land suitable for grain cultivation. On this land the country can produce about 650 million tons of grain.




China Can Feed Itself. The country has sufficient land and water resources to feed its projected population of 1.48 billion by 2025.

However, various measures have to be implemented now, to ...
	prevent loss of cultivated land through infrastructure expansion,
	develop the transportation and flood mitigation infrastucture, and
	reduce soil degradation.

Particularly important is ...
	the drastic increase in water use efficiency (especially in irrigation),
	the development of water resources for the North (trans-basin water diversion), and
	*a strict* implementation of measures to reduce industrial and urban water pollution.**

The government might also find it economically attractive to import moderate amounts (30- 50 million tons) of grain, to prevent the full exploitation of all available cropland for grain cultivation.