IIASA

Home

About

Foreword

Introduction

Research

Arguments

In-depth Analyses

All Data

     Tables

     Charts / Figures

     Thematic Maps

FAQ

Summary

Conclusions

Resources

Bibliography

Web Links

Index

Other

Feedback

Thanks

Help

Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 

Presentation: Selected Tables and Charts

Population

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

1 Population History redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Food security does not correlate with population density
2 Population Pyramid redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Baby boom; demographic indicator of famine during the "Great Leap Forward"
3 Population Crisis redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Famine-related population crisis
4 Aging: Animation redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Population momentum
5 Aging: Age Groups redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Unique situation: very large working-age population

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Diet

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

6 Food Calorie Supply redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Food supply has significantly improved; people eat a more diverse diet

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Urbanization

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

7 Urban / Rural Population redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Statistics are of little value
8 Projections redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Large uncertainty in future trends
9 Agricultural / Non-agricultural redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Household registration system is used to control (rural-urban) mobility
10 Data manipulation redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Low validity of urban-rural statistics: You can proof whatever you want.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Arable Land

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

11 Various older estimates redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Cultivated land area was under-estimated by about 40%.
12 New estimate redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Land-use survey of the Chinese State Land Administration
13 What is causing land losses? redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Agricultural restructuring is the major factor of land-use change
14 Soil degradation   (maps) redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Soil degradation is still only moderate or low in cultivated areas

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Water

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

15 Precipitation   (animation) redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) A strong gradient in precipitation from the South-east to the North-west
16 LGP - Animation redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) The Length of Growing Period animation shows high climate variation and stability in various regions of China
16 Flooding   (remote sensing) redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Flooding is one of the greatest risks for food security; siltation of Yellow river
17 Water availability redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Highly uneven distribution between the North and South; 34% of the population lives in water constraint areas

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Policy (economic / agricultural)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

18 Pre- and post-1978 policy redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Before 1978: centrally planned command-and-control agriculture on collective land. After 1978: family farming with increasing market elements

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Science & Technology

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

19 Machinery; Fertilizers; Yields  redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Mechanization and modernization of China's agriculture
20 Investment in research redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) State investment into agricultural research

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Conclusion:

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

21 Demand
Various projections
redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) Depending on trends in diet change China will need between 500 to 600 million tons of grain in 2025.
22 Supply
Land with cultivation potential
Potential grain production
redarr_r.gif (846 bytes) China has some 160 million hectares of land suitable for grain cultivation. On this land the country can produce about 650 million tons of grain.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

China Can Feed Itself.
The country has sufficient land and water resources to feed its projected population
of 1.48 billion by 2025.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

However, various measures have to be implemented now, to ...
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) prevent loss of cultivated land through infrastructure expansion,
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) develop the transportation and flood mitigation infrastucture, and
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) reduce soil degradation.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

Particularly important is ...
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) the drastic increase in water use efficiency (especially in irrigation),
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) the development of water resources for the North (trans-basin water diversion), and
blue_bullet.gif (262 bytes) a strict implementation of measures to reduce industrial and urban water pollution.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

The government might also find it economically attractive to import moderate amounts (30- 50 million tons) of grain, to prevent the full exploitation of all available cropland for grain cultivation.

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)

blank_3.gif (810 bytes)